Five Hundred Words 11/09/2018

Friday, November 9, 2018

Daily Writing

1:05 PM

Markets are down today overall.  The question is whether the past week was a false breakout to the upside or if will see continued momentum higher toward the end of the year.  The price of crude oil continues to drop as we are now retesting February lows.  If crude oil drops below $60/barrel it would have disastrous effects on the U.S. shale industry, as prices need to remain above $60/barrel for the industry to remain solvent.

Bond yields ticked higher throughout the week.  While yields on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note remain elevated, it is not clear if the yield will continue to move higher and eventually break through the 3.25 level for the long term.  Bond yields have been artificially suppressed for quite some time, and it seems reasonable to believe that we could see bond yields move into the 3.50% to 4.00% range, at least temporarily.  Side note: Brazilian U.S. Treasury yields ticked steadily higher throughout the past week.

Market Data

Resource Commodities

 

 

November 9, 2018

November 8, 2018

November 7, 2018

November 6, 2018

November 5, 2018

Gold SPOT

1223.50

1226.10

1226.50

1230.60

1232.20

Silver

14.420

14.540

14.495

14.610

14.715

Platinum

861.00

871.00

867.00

864.00

NA

Copper

2.78

2.72

2.81

2.8034

2.8099

Uranium

28.80

28.90

27.85

NA

NA

Crude(WTI)

60.19

61.60

62.61

63.23

63.49

 

Global government bond Yields (10 year)

 

 

November 9, 2018

November 8, 2018

November 7, 2018

November 6, 2018

November 5, 2018

U.S. 10 year

3.19%

3.22%

3.19%

3.20%

3.19%

Germany

0.40%

0.45%

0.45%

0.42%

NA

Brazil

10.37%

10.31%

10.26%

10.19%

NA

Italy

3.40%

3.41%

3.35%

3.40%

NA

Japan

0.11%

0.11%

0.11%

0.12%

NA

 

 

Major U.S. Indexes

 

 

November 9, 2018

November 8, 2018

November 7, 2018

November 6, 2018

November 5, 2018

VIX

16.87

16.18

18.03

19.84

20.18

DOW

261.49

261.80

257.85

254.52

254.44

S&P 500

277.76

281.01

277.55

273.36

271.89

NASDAQ

7406.90

7570.75

7442.00

7378.25

7356.99

 

Currency Cross Rates

 

 

November 9, 2018

November 8, 2018

November 7, 2018

November 6, 2018

November 5, 2018

USD/JPY

113.7800

113.6800

113.2900

113.2900

113.1600

EUR/USD

1.1315

1.1426

1.1476

1.1407

1.387

AUD/USD

0.7213

0.7292

0.7285

0.7229

0.7204

CHF/USD

1.00590

0.9971

1.0021

0.9964

1.0044

USD/CNY

6.9552

6.9366

6.9165

6.9166

6.9273

USD Index

96.90

96.23

95.87

96.29

96.45

 

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Five Hundred Words 11/02/2018

Friday, November 2, 2018

Daily Writing

10:24 AM

U.S. average hourly earnings rose 3.1% in October.  Rising rates are central bank’s worst nightmare because it forces central banks to raise interest rates.  We think it is quite possible we see another rise in the federal funds rate in December.

Market Data

Commodities & U.S. Treasuries

November 2, 2018

November 1, 2018

October 31, 2018

October 30, 2018

October 29, 2018

Gold SPOT

1232.55

1218.30

1215.20

1222.90

NA

Silver

14.77

14.38

14.33

14.49

NA

Crude(WTI)

63.34

65.16

66.35

65.64

NA

US 10yr

3.18%

3.16%

3.15%

3.11%

NA

 

Major U.S. Indexes

 

November 2, 2018

November 1, 2018

October 30, 2018

October 30, 2018

October 29, 2018

VIX

19.24

20.96

22.72

24.20

NA

DOW

254.84

252.42

248.75

247.00

NA

S&P 500

274.75

271.64

267.77

266.23

NA

Nasdaq

7407.46

7332.72

7161.65

7124.74

NA

Currency Cross Rates

 

November 2, 2018 November 1, 2018 October 31, 2018 October 30, 2018 October 26, 2018

USD/JPY

113.28

112.750

113.240

112.861

112.368

EUR/USD

1.1385

1.1405

1.1318

1.14105

1.1407

AUD/USD

0.7193

0.7192

0.7086

0.7114

0.7046

CHF/USD

0.9955

0.992

0.993

0.997

0.99849

USD/CNY

6.8893

6.9346

6.9737

6.928

6.945

USD Index

96.53

96.41

97.13

96.79

96.73