Five Hundred Words 11/05/2018

Monday, November 5, 2018

Daily Writing

10:24 AM

The most palpable tension is stemming from the uncertainty over the outcome of tomorrow’s mid-term elections.  The outcome is uncertain.

The price of U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell by more than 6.6% for the week.  Oil prices posted their fourth consecutive weekly loss.  It is still not entirely clear to me what determines the price of oil.  My intuition tells me that oil trading is susceptible to numerous exogenous factors that cannot be predicted by oil traders.

The price of gold continues to hover around the $1200.00/oz level, silver remains bound between $14.00 and $15.00/oz.

On Saturday (11/03/2018), Berkshire Hathaway Inc reported that its operating profit nearly doubled from the year prior due to stronger insurance results and lower taxes.  It is reported that Berkshire Hathaway repurchased $1 billion of its own stock in the third quarter of 2018.  Net income jumped to $18.5 billion from $4.1 billion just a year ago.

Looking at the bond market: “not one point on the Treasury yield curve is priced to deliver a positive, after-tax, real return when adjusted for the consumer prices you actually pay but that the Bureau of Labor Statistics neglects to incorporate in its carefully curated inflation indices.”[1]

[1] Grant’s, Vol. 36, No. 21, “What Corrections Correct”

Market Data

Commodities & U.S. Treasuries

 

 

November 5, 2018

November 2, 2018

November 1, 2018

October 31, 2018

October 30, 2018

Gold SPOT

1232.20

1232.55

1218.30

1215.20

1222.90

Silver

14.715

14.77

14.38

14.33

14.49

Crude(WTI)

63.49

63.34

65.16

66.35

65.64

US 10yr

3.19%

3.18%

3.16%

3.15%

3.11%

Major U.S. Indexes

 

November 5, 2018

November 2, 2018

November 1, 2018

October 30, 2018

October 30, 2018

VIX

20.18

19.24

20.96

22.72

24.20

DOW

254.44

254.84

252.42

248.75

247.00

S&P 500

271.89

274.75

271.64

267.77

266.23

Nasdaq

7356.99

7407.46

7332.72

7161.65

7124.74

Currency Cross Rates

 

November 5, 2018

November 2, 2018

November 1, 2018

October 31, 2018

October 30, 2018

USD/JPY

113.1600

113.28

112.750

113.240

112.861

EUR/USD

1.387

1.1385

1.1405

1.1318

1.14105

AUD/USD

0.7204

0.7193

0.7192

0.7086

0.7114

CHF/USD

1.0044

0.9955

0.992

0.993

0.997

USD/CNY

6.9273

6.8893

6.9346

6.9737

6.928

USD INdeX

96.45

96.53

96.41

97.13

96.79

 

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Five Hundred Words 11/02/2018

Friday, November 2, 2018

Daily Writing

10:24 AM

U.S. average hourly earnings rose 3.1% in October.  Rising rates are central bank’s worst nightmare because it forces central banks to raise interest rates.  We think it is quite possible we see another rise in the federal funds rate in December.

Market Data

Commodities & U.S. Treasuries

November 2, 2018

November 1, 2018

October 31, 2018

October 30, 2018

October 29, 2018

Gold SPOT

1232.55

1218.30

1215.20

1222.90

NA

Silver

14.77

14.38

14.33

14.49

NA

Crude(WTI)

63.34

65.16

66.35

65.64

NA

US 10yr

3.18%

3.16%

3.15%

3.11%

NA

 

Major U.S. Indexes

 

November 2, 2018

November 1, 2018

October 30, 2018

October 30, 2018

October 29, 2018

VIX

19.24

20.96

22.72

24.20

NA

DOW

254.84

252.42

248.75

247.00

NA

S&P 500

274.75

271.64

267.77

266.23

NA

Nasdaq

7407.46

7332.72

7161.65

7124.74

NA

Currency Cross Rates

 

November 2, 2018 November 1, 2018 October 31, 2018 October 30, 2018 October 26, 2018

USD/JPY

113.28

112.750

113.240

112.861

112.368

EUR/USD

1.1385

1.1405

1.1318

1.14105

1.1407

AUD/USD

0.7193

0.7192

0.7086

0.7114

0.7046

CHF/USD

0.9955

0.992

0.993

0.997

0.99849

USD/CNY

6.8893

6.9346

6.9737

6.928

6.945

USD Index

96.53

96.41

97.13

96.79

96.73