Five Hundred Words 12/13/2018

Thursday, December 13, 2018

Daily Writing

Things I’m thinking about

  • What is the long-term economic impact of quantitative tightening (QT)?  Does anyone know the answer? Is there a historical precedent?
  • Why has the hedge fund industry struggled so much over the past few years?
  • How to discover the things in the world that are permanent and enduring?
  • What kinds of things are more durable than others?
  • What is “total social financing” (TSF)?

 

Market Overview

Over the past week the market has struggled to find traction, it feels like there could still be more downside.  Early in the morning the CBOE put/call ratio was the highest I’ve ever seen at 1.94. It slowly moved downward through the day, but it remains quite elevated.  What is the root cause of all the fear in the market? Volatility spiked a small amount in the middle in the day but overall the market is basically just flat.

ECB to halt expansion of EUR 2.6 trillion quantitative easing (QE) program.

What impact will this have on European markets?

Another hedge fund veteran is quitting a brutal market.

 

 

General Notes

Types of Hedge Funds


CTA/Managed Futures

Equity Hedge

Event Driven

Fixed Income Directional

Fixed Income Relative Value

Macro

Multi-strategy

 

Trading Log

11:00 AM

I’m trying to become more aware of timing and trade selection.  Recently I realized I’ve been overtrading for the past year, this causes me to make some gains on my good trades, but those gains are quickly offset by ill-advised or poorly timed trades.  My view is that the current market environment is good for experienced active traders. My problem is I’m not experienced enough in these types of market environments to have a firm grasp of what’s really going on in this world.

I shouldn’t feel pressure to swing at every single pitch.  In fact, I shouldn’t feel pressure to ever swing at a pitch because there are not strikeouts unless I swing the bat.  I can wait a thousand pitches if I want.

3:30 PM

After meeting with a valued advisor today I left our discussion with a renewed sense of the importance of understanding and developing my own style.  The world is in a constant state of disruption, yet there are still things, people, asset classes, and equities that endure and remain constant.  It’s not enough to find one person to emulate.  It’s important that I take in everything I can from the world around me.  This includes a varied set of viewpoints and ideas.  Will continue grinding.

 

Market Data

Resource Commodities

 

December 13, 2018 December 12, 2018 December 11, 2018 December 10, 2018

Gold Spot

1245.00
1242.90
1243.10
1245.00

Silver

14.720
14.535
14.495
14.545

Platinum

802.00
783.00
783.00
782.00

Copper

2.780
2.7854
2.7575
2.80

Crude(WTI)

51.41
51.83
51.52
51.58

 

Global Government Bond Yields

 

December 13, 2018 December 12, 2018 December 11, 2018 December 10, 2018

US 10 year

2.91%
2.90%
NA
2.85%

US 30 Year

3.16%
3.13%
NA
3.13%

UK

1.26%
1.24%
NA
1.21%

Germany

0.27%
0.26%
0.23%
0.25%

Brazil

9.86%
10.02%
NA
10.12%

Italy

2.93%
3.00%
NA
3.09%

Japan

0.05%
0.04%
NA
0.03%

 

Major U.S. Indices

 

December 13, 2018 December 12, 2018 December 11, 2018 December 10, 2018

VIX

21.00
21.91
NA
23.95

DOW

245.76
245.09
NA
243.61

S&P 500

266.45
267.45
NA
263.37

NASDAQ

7096.00
7163.89
NA
7041.83

EM USD

NA
1061.96
NA
1062.41

 

Currency Cross Rates

 

December 13, 2018 December 12, 2018 December 11, 2018 December 10, 2018

USD/JPY

113.6700
113.210
NA
113.1800

EUR/USD

1.1355
1.1366
NA
1.1358

AUD/USD

0.7223
0.7230
NA
0.7188

USD/MXN

20.069
20.0358
NA
6.8730

USD/CNY

6.878
6.8777
NA
6.9127

USD Index

97.15
97.46
NA
97.18

 

Advertisements