Thursday, December 20, 2018
Daily Writing
Housekeeping
As I mentioned in a previous post I will be in China from December 25th to January 15th. My intent is to continue updating the blog while I am there, but I cannot guarantee that I will be able to post every day. One factor I cannot control is the quality of the internet connection. I don’t plan on using a VPN, so if WordPress doesn’t function well in China, I’m going to be forced to deal with the consequences of that. Even if I can’t post while I’m away I will continue writing and I’m sure I will have many stories to share by January 15th when I return.
Things I am thinking about today
- Find software I can use to analyze my writing empirically (e.g., word usage rates, typing speed, etc.)
- How can I keep track of major announcements made by the Chinese communist party?
- What is the best way to map historical events into a framework?
- For example, when Xi Jinping gives a new speech, how can I readily incorporate that information into my central China framework?
Things I was thinking about yesterday
- What key economic metrics am I overlooking? Especially regarding China?
- Chinese internal crisis of confidence. Are Chinese elites losing faith in Xi?
- The empty promises of Xi Jinping. What promises specifically? “Reform”?
- The Federal reserve is scheduled to raise interest rates 0.25% today. How will the market respond?
- Where can we find opportunities in this environment?
- What is ‘open interest’?
- Why is it significant if LIBOR moves higher (or lower)?
- How to improve my technical analysis?
- How can I improve the structure of my days?
Trading Log
9:48 AM
Today I spent most of the day casually observing the market and listening to an audiobook by George Magnus titled Red Flags: Why Xi’s China is in Jeopardy. It is an interesting book focused on understanding China’s current problems in 2018 while also examining the historical context behind China’s interests as a modern superpower.
Market Observations
I find it quite interesting how briefly the yield on the US 10-year stayed above 3.00%. The idea that the Chinese were actively selling US treasuries in October and November doesn’t really seem that ridiculous. I don’t understand bonds quite as well as I would like, but I’m having trouble understanding most asset classes in this market environment.
I’m also drawn to the rapidly declining yields of the Brazilian Government Bond. What is the reason behind this? In October the yield on the BGB was almost 11.00%, now it sits at 9.41% as accelerating downward.
Market Data
Resource Commodities
December 20, 2018 |
December 19, 2018 |
December 18, 2018 |
December 17, 2018 |
|
Gold Spot |
NA |
1249.00 |
1245.20 |
1238.10 |
Silver |
NA |
14.600 |
14.65 |
14.535 |
Platinum |
NA |
789.00 |
792.00 |
785.00 |
Copper |
NA |
2.6825 |
2.7040 |
2.7200 |
Crude (WTI) |
NA |
47.00 |
48.64 |
50.53 |
Global Government Bond Yields
|
|
December 20, 2018 |
December 19, 2018 |
December 18, 2018 |
December 17, 2018 |
US 10 year |
2.79% |
2.82% |
2.85% |
2.86% |
US 30 Year |
3.02% |
3.06% |
3.10% |
3.12% |
UK |
1.26% |
1.28% |
1.28% |
1.27% |
Germany |
0.23% |
0.25% |
0.24% |
0.26% |
Brazil |
9.41% |
9.56% |
9.67% |
9.67% |
Italy |
2.73% |
2.78% |
2.93% |
2.95% |
Japan |
0.02% |
0.02% |
0.01% |
0.02% |
Major U.S. Indices
|
|
December 20, 2018 |
December 19, 2018 |
December 18, 2018 |
December 17, 2018 |
VIX |
NA |
25.15 |
24.68 |
22.36 |
DOW |
NA |
236.93 |
237.70 |
239.86 |
S&P 500 |
NA |
255.18 |
257.19 |
259.39 |
NASDAQ |
NA |
6741.80 |
6812.51 |
6864.23 |
Currency Cross Rates
|
|
December 20, 2018 |
December 19, 2018 |
December 18, 2018 |
December 17, 2018 |
USD/JPY |
NA |
112.450 |
112.500 |
112.9200 |
EUR/USD |
NA |
1.1392 |
1.1369 |
1.1344 |
GBP/USD |
NA |
1.2628 |
1.2650 |
NA |
AUD/USD |
NA |
0.7141 |
0.7175 |
0.7181 |
USD/MXN |
NA |
20.068 |
20.066 |
20.223 |
USD/CNY |
NA |
6.894 |
6.896 |
6.905 |
USD Index |
NA |
97.03 |
97.02 |
97.15 |
