Monday, December 10, 2018
Daily Writing
9:25 AM
Things I’m thinking about
- Do option holders receive dividends?
- How do the best traders structure their days?
- What are the routines of the top traders?
- What factors determine bond prices and yields?
- After the point where the yield curve inverts, how do markets typically behave until recession arrives?
- What does full conviction feel like?
- What is the current state of global liquidity? What are the arguments for global liquidity drying up?
- What would happen to the UK economy under a ‘hard Brexit’?
Market Overview
Brexit
The major news today revolves around Theresa May’s aborted Brexit vote upon the realization that her Brexit proposal would fail miserably.
How are markets reacting?
The GBP/USD currency pair dropped 67 basis points and is sitting on 0.90280 at time of writing. The EUR/GBP currency pair is trading 92 basis points higher at 0.90261.
Our view is Theresa May is merely delaying the inevitable.
The Chinese Yuan has started weakening again
Trading Log
Moving forward I will include a trading log as part of my writing. The purpose of this activity is to gain a better sense of the price action of the market as it relates to my emotions in the market. My to gain a better understanding of the impact of markets on my emotions.
Why do I have such strong impulses to sell when the correct decision would be to buy and vice versa? It’s quite easy to lose track of your emotions while trading.
A lesson I learned recently is that I don’t always need to be trading. I’ve found that 90% of my time is better spent observing the market, researching, and doing pretty much nothing. I’ve discovered that I make my biggest mistakes when entering trades at the wrong time, mostly early. For example, after I conduct my research and open a position, I find I have difficulty maintaining my original reason for entering the trade initially, so when the trade starts to go in the wrong direction I begin to allow new ideas to pop into my head that eventually convinces me I’m wrong, even if I’m still right. It’s quite confusing.
Market Data
Resource Commodities
|
|
December 10, 2018 |
December 7, 2018 |
December 6, 2018 |
December 5, 2018 |
Gold Spot |
1245.00 |
1237.20 |
NA |
1238.00 |
Silver |
14.545 |
14.440 |
NA |
14.505 |
Platinum |
782.00 |
788.00 |
NA |
802.00 |
Copper |
2.80 |
2.7530 |
NA |
2.7555 |
Crude(WTI) |
51.58 |
53.73 |
NA |
52.12 |
Global Government Bond Yields
|
|
December 10, 2018 |
December 7, 2018 |
December 6, 2018 |
December 5, 2018 |
US 10 year |
2.85% |
2.89% |
2.87% |
2.91% |
US 30 Year |
3.13% |
3.17% |
3.13 |
3.17% |
UK |
1.21% |
1.26% |
1.24% |
1.31% |
Germany |
0.25% |
0.26% |
0.23% |
0.27% |
Brazil |
10.12% |
9.99% |
10.00% |
10.09% |
Italy |
3.09% |
3.14% |
3.20% |
3.05% |
Japan |
0.03% |
0.05% |
0.05% |
0.06% |
Major U.S. Indices
|
|
December 10, 2018 |
December 7, 2018 |
December 6, 2018 |
December 5, 2018 |
VIX |
23.95 |
22.42 |
23.53 |
CLOSED |
DOW |
243.61 |
24918.82 |
247.27 |
CLOSED |
S&P 500 |
263.37 |
269.45 |
265.97 |
CLOSED |
NASDAQ |
7041.83 |
6994.39 |
7114.10 |
CLOSED |
EM USD |
1062.41 |
1059.54 |
1060.39 |
CLOSED |
Currency Cross Rates
|
|
December 10, 2018 |
December 7, 2018 |
December 6, 2018 |
December 5, 2018 |
USD/JPY |
113.1800 |
112.6900 |
112.4800 |
113.2100 |
EUR/USD |
1.1358 |
1.1384 |
1.1389 |
1.1344 |
AUD/USD |
0.7188 |
0.7227 |
0.7224 |
0.7268 |
USD/MXN |
6.8730 |
20.338 |
20.494 |
20.5130 |
USD/CNY |
6.9127 |
6.882 |
6.8815 |
6.8545 |
USD Index |
97.18 |
96.80 |
97.00 |
97.08 |
