Five Hundred Words 11/28/2018

Wednesday, November 28, 2018

Daily Writing

9:15 AM

We are most interested in global government bond yields.  Will we see a flight to safety toward U.S. Treasuries if we begin to see further weakness in corporate debt?  Is there truth to the idea that artificially suppressed interest rates over the past ten years have incentivized corporations to borrow beyond their means?  What is our position on interest rates?  Are we bullish or bearish bonds?  What is the bear and bull case for bonds?  It’s worth noting that the Swiss 10 Year Note Generic Bid Yield is currently -0.12%.[1]  How do negative yields work?

Although the consensus is that Chinese economic data is unreliable, what are the most commonly used indicators to determine the relative strength of the Chinese economy?  Under more normal conditions, what economic indicators are typically used to determine the relative strength of a sovereign economy.

Yesterday (11/27/2018) volatility was subdued.  The CBOE Put/Call Ratio started the day above 1.00 at 1.11 but fear dissipated from the market after morning trading.  Today the VIX opened below 19.00 at 18.87 and is down 2.07% at the time of writing.

Significant decline in New Home Sales.  New Home Sales in the United States decreased to 544K in October from 597K in September.[2]

 

 

Market Data

Resource Commodities

 

November 28, 2018

November 27, 2018

November 26, 2018

November 20, 2018

November 19, 2018

Gold Spot

1214.60

1221.60

1222.80

1224.55

1222.70

Silver

14.120

14.190

14.250

14.405

14.340

Gold/silver

86.13

85.81

85.86

NA

NA

Platinum

831.00

842.00

841.00

847.00

841.00

Copper

2.75%

2.73

2.72

2.80

2.80

Crude(WTI)

51.23

51.58

51.91

56.23

55.66

 

Global Government Bond Yields

 

November 28, 2018

November 27, 2018

November 26, 2018

november 19, 2018

november 16, 2018

US 10 year

3.06%

3.07%

3.07%

3.04%

3.08%

US 30 Year

3.33%

3.32%

3.38%

3.29%

NA

UK

1.37%

1.39%

1.41%

1.39%

1.42%

Germany

0.35%

0.35%

0.36%

0.35%

0.36%

Brazil

10.08%

10.10%

9.97%

10.10%

10.15%

Italy

3.26%

3.25%

3.25%

3.60%

3.49%

Japan

0.09%

0.08%

0.08%

0.09%

0.09%

 

 

Major U.S. Indexes

 

November 28, 2018

November 27, 2018

November 26, 2018

November 20, 2018

November 19, 2018

VIX

18.87

19.41

20.78

20.76

18.78

DOW

248.33

246.40

243.64

250.17

254.13

S&P 500

269.61

265.76

265.80

269.10

273.73

NASDAQ

7120.56

7081.85

7051.86

NA

7247.87

EM USD

1048.40

NA

NA

NA

NA

 

Currency Cross Rates

 

November 28, 2018

November 27, 2018

November 26, 2018

November 20, 2018

November 19, 2018

USD/JPY

113.6300

113.6300

113.5700

NA

112.8600

EUR/USD

1.1367

1.1326

1.1340

NA

1.1427

AUD/USD

0.7304

0.7242

0.7233

NA

0.7289

USD/MXN

20.2442

20.623

20.399

NA

NA

CHF/USD

1.0063

1.00187

1.0012

NA

1.0033

USD/CNY

6.9538

6.9486

6.9396

NA

6.9427

USD Index

96.84

97.15

96.98

NA

96.39

 

 

 

 

[1] https://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates-bonds

[2] https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/new-home-sales

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s