Five Hundred Words 11/26/2018

Monday, November 26, 2018

Daily Writing

8:37 AM

We are placing greater emphasis on risk management and portfolio construction.  Personally, I perform portfolio evaluations each day to address weaknesses.  I intend to use this blog as a means of keeping track of my work.  Additionally, I can use the blog to publicize my work, progress, and development strategy.

There are many things to learn each day.  I am working to geographically regionalize my framework because I learn best when I can visualize the system I am analyzing.  The world is a complex system which I am hoping to investigate.

This blog is intended to be daily, but I do take time off for holidays and travel days.  I spend my days reading and monitoring data.

I learn by asking questions and seeking the answer.  Sometimes I do not find the solution immediately or at all, but sometimes the question in itself or the process of seeking can be more critical.  This blog contains many questions that remain unanswered.

What is the importance of the gold/silver ratio?  What does it mean when the gold/silver ratio moves higher or lower?

The price of oil continues to fall considerably.  WTI Crude (Jan ’19) has dropped more than 30.00% since its high on October 3, 2018.  What is the cause of falling oil prices?  Despite the decline in price in recent weeks, WTI Crude is up close to 2.82% on the day at the time of writing.

Brazilian 10-year government bond yields have dipped below 10.00% for the first time since May 2018.

We’ve introduced the Mexican 10-year bond yield to our global government bond yield watchlist because we would like to keep a closer eye on the political developments of incoming Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO).  We have also introduced the USD/MXN currency cross pair to serve the same function.  AMLO is a socialist who heads the National Regeneration Movement (MORENA). [1]

We continue to emphasize the importance of building out a framework for understanding the flow of capital in the world.

At the end of the week, President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping will meet in Buenos Aires as part of the Group of 20 meetings and look for ways to ease tensions.[2]

A scientist in China claims to have created the world’s first genetically edited babies, in a potentially ground-breaking and controversial medical first.[3]  In what other scientific areas is China equally or as advanced?yield_curve_11_26_2018

What are the effects of a flattening yield curve vis-à-vis a steepening yield curve?  Which result is most desirable for the Federal Reserve?

The CBOE volatility index dropped considerably today, finishing at 18.90 after opening at 20.78, a 12.17% decline.

Market Data

Resource Commodities

 

November 26, 2018

November 20, 2018

November 19, 2018

November 16, 2018

November 15, 2018

Gold Spot

1222.80

1224.55

1222.70

1214.50

1203.25

Silver

14.250

14.405

14.340

14.270

14.130

AU/AG Ratio

85.86

NA

NA

NA

NA

Platinum

841.00

847.00

841.00

840.00

833.00

Copper

2.72

2.80

2.80

2.75

2.78

Crude(WTI)

51.91

56.23

55.66

57.82

56.53

Global Government Bond Yields

 

November 26, 2018

November 19, 2018

November 16, 2018

November 15, 2018

November 14, 2018

US 10 year

3.07%

3.04%

3.08%

3.09%

3.15%

US 30 Year

3.38%

3.29%

NA

NA

NA

UK

1.41%

1.39%

1.42%

NA

NA

Germany

0.36%

0.35%

0.36%

0.36%

0.40%

Brazil

9.97%

10.10%

10.15%

10.39%

10.44%

Italy

3.25%

3.60%

3.49%

3.51%

3.48%

Japan

0.08%

0.09%

0.09%

0.10%

0.10%

Major U.S. Indexes

 

November 26, 2018

November 20, 2018

November 19, 2018

November 16, 2018

November 15, 2018

VIX

20.78

20.76

18.78

20.04

20.41

DOW

243.64

250.17

254.13

252.42

250.61

S&P 500

265.80

269.10

273.73

271.74

268.76

NASDAQ

7051.86

NA

7247.87

7247.87

7129.04

Currency Cross Rates

 

November 26, 2018

November 20, 2018

November 19, 2018

November 16, 2018

November 15, 2018

USD/JPY

113.5700

NA

112.8600

112.8300

113.2200

EUR/USD

1.1340

NA

1.1427

1.1415

1.1303

AUD/USD

0.7233

NA

0.7289

0.7332

0.7272

USD/MXN

20.399

NA

NA

NA

NA

CHF/USD

1.0012

NA

1.0033

0.9996

0.9949

USD/CNY

6.9396

NA

6.9427

6.936

6.938

USD Index

96.98

NA

96.39

96.43

97.22

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Regeneration_Movement

[2] https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-china-trade-fight-risks-fragmenting-global-market-says-beijings-ambassador-to-the-u-s-1543228321

[3] https://www.theguardian.com/science/2018/nov/26/worlds-first-gene-edited-babies-created-in-china-claims-scientist

Image: National Geographic

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s