Five Hundred Words 11/09/2018

Friday, November 9, 2018

Daily Writing

1:05 PM

Markets are down today overall.  The question is whether the past week was a false breakout to the upside or if will see continued momentum higher toward the end of the year.  The price of crude oil continues to drop as we are now retesting February lows.  If crude oil drops below $60/barrel it would have disastrous effects on the U.S. shale industry, as prices need to remain above $60/barrel for the industry to remain solvent.

Bond yields ticked higher throughout the week.  While yields on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note remain elevated, it is not clear if the yield will continue to move higher and eventually break through the 3.25 level for the long term.  Bond yields have been artificially suppressed for quite some time, and it seems reasonable to believe that we could see bond yields move into the 3.50% to 4.00% range, at least temporarily.  Side note: Brazilian U.S. Treasury yields ticked steadily higher throughout the past week.

Market Data

Resource Commodities

 

 

November 9, 2018

November 8, 2018

November 7, 2018

November 6, 2018

November 5, 2018

Gold SPOT

1223.50

1226.10

1226.50

1230.60

1232.20

Silver

14.420

14.540

14.495

14.610

14.715

Platinum

861.00

871.00

867.00

864.00

NA

Copper

2.78

2.72

2.81

2.8034

2.8099

Uranium

28.80

28.90

27.85

NA

NA

Crude(WTI)

60.19

61.60

62.61

63.23

63.49

 

Global government bond Yields (10 year)

 

 

November 9, 2018

November 8, 2018

November 7, 2018

November 6, 2018

November 5, 2018

U.S. 10 year

3.19%

3.22%

3.19%

3.20%

3.19%

Germany

0.40%

0.45%

0.45%

0.42%

NA

Brazil

10.37%

10.31%

10.26%

10.19%

NA

Italy

3.40%

3.41%

3.35%

3.40%

NA

Japan

0.11%

0.11%

0.11%

0.12%

NA

 

 

Major U.S. Indexes

 

 

November 9, 2018

November 8, 2018

November 7, 2018

November 6, 2018

November 5, 2018

VIX

16.87

16.18

18.03

19.84

20.18

DOW

261.49

261.80

257.85

254.52

254.44

S&P 500

277.76

281.01

277.55

273.36

271.89

NASDAQ

7406.90

7570.75

7442.00

7378.25

7356.99

 

Currency Cross Rates

 

 

November 9, 2018

November 8, 2018

November 7, 2018

November 6, 2018

November 5, 2018

USD/JPY

113.7800

113.6800

113.2900

113.2900

113.1600

EUR/USD

1.1315

1.1426

1.1476

1.1407

1.387

AUD/USD

0.7213

0.7292

0.7285

0.7229

0.7204

CHF/USD

1.00590

0.9971

1.0021

0.9964

1.0044

USD/CNY

6.9552

6.9366

6.9165

6.9166

6.9273

USD Index

96.90

96.23

95.87

96.29

96.45

 

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