Friday, November 9, 2018
Daily Writing
1:05 PM
Markets are down today overall. The question is whether the past week was a false breakout to the upside or if will see continued momentum higher toward the end of the year. The price of crude oil continues to drop as we are now retesting February lows. If crude oil drops below $60/barrel it would have disastrous effects on the U.S. shale industry, as prices need to remain above $60/barrel for the industry to remain solvent.
Bond yields ticked higher throughout the week. While yields on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note remain elevated, it is not clear if the yield will continue to move higher and eventually break through the 3.25 level for the long term. Bond yields have been artificially suppressed for quite some time, and it seems reasonable to believe that we could see bond yields move into the 3.50% to 4.00% range, at least temporarily. Side note: Brazilian U.S. Treasury yields ticked steadily higher throughout the past week.
Market Data
Resource Commodities
|
|
November 9, 2018 |
November 8, 2018 |
November 7, 2018 |
November 6, 2018 |
November 5, 2018 |
Gold SPOT |
1223.50 |
1226.10 |
1226.50 |
1230.60 |
1232.20 |
Silver |
14.420 |
14.540 |
14.495 |
14.610 |
14.715 |
Platinum |
861.00 |
871.00 |
867.00 |
864.00 |
NA |
Copper |
2.78 |
2.72 |
2.81 |
2.8034 |
2.8099 |
Uranium |
28.80 |
28.90 |
27.85 |
NA |
NA |
Crude(WTI) |
60.19 |
61.60 |
62.61 |
63.23 |
63.49 |
Global government bond Yields (10 year)
|
|
November 9, 2018 |
November 8, 2018 |
November 7, 2018 |
November 6, 2018 |
November 5, 2018 |
U.S. 10 year |
3.19% |
3.22% |
3.19% |
3.20% |
3.19% |
Germany |
0.40% |
0.45% |
0.45% |
0.42% |
NA |
Brazil |
10.37% |
10.31% |
10.26% |
10.19% |
NA |
Italy |
3.40% |
3.41% |
3.35% |
3.40% |
NA |
Japan |
0.11% |
0.11% |
0.11% |
0.12% |
NA |
Major U.S. Indexes
|
|
November 9, 2018 |
November 8, 2018 |
November 7, 2018 |
November 6, 2018 |
November 5, 2018 |
VIX |
16.87 |
16.18 |
18.03 |
19.84 |
20.18 |
DOW |
261.49 |
261.80 |
257.85 |
254.52 |
254.44 |
S&P 500 |
277.76 |
281.01 |
277.55 |
273.36 |
271.89 |
NASDAQ |
7406.90 |
7570.75 |
7442.00 |
7378.25 |
7356.99 |
Currency Cross Rates
|
|
November 9, 2018 |
November 8, 2018 |
November 7, 2018 |
November 6, 2018 |
November 5, 2018 |
USD/JPY |
113.7800 |
113.6800 |
113.2900 |
113.2900 |
113.1600 |
EUR/USD |
1.1315 |
1.1426 |
1.1476 |
1.1407 |
1.387 |
AUD/USD |
0.7213 |
0.7292 |
0.7285 |
0.7229 |
0.7204 |
CHF/USD |
1.00590 |
0.9971 |
1.0021 |
0.9964 |
1.0044 |
USD/CNY |
6.9552 |
6.9366 |
6.9165 |
6.9166 |
6.9273 |
USD Index |
96.90 |
96.23 |
95.87 |
96.29 |
96.45 |
